In 1974 Kahneman & Tversky ran a behavioural experiment that aimed to measure the effect of perceived risk on human decision-making.
Participants were asked to imagine an outbreak of a fatal disease that will kill six hundred people. However, there were 2 pairs of proposed programmes that would mitigate this. The participants simply had to choose the programme they felt gave the best outcome.ย
Programme 1 result: 200 people will be saved
Programme 2 result: A 33% probability that all people will be saved and a 67% probability that everybody will die.
๐ณ๐ฎ% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ด๐ฟ๐ฎ๐บ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ญ.
Programme 1A result: 400 people wonโt be saved.
Programme 2A result: A 33% probability that everyone will be saved and a 67% probability that 600 people will die.
๐ณ๐ด% ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ผ๐๐ฒ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ด๐ฟ๐ฎ๐บ๐บ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐
Yet the outcome of 1 = 1A, and 2 = 2A, so the wording of the proposal (the Framing) caused a 50% swing to the opposite result.
When used consciously and skilfully, this principle has a significant impact for anyone managing people, due to the clarity and precision it brings to communications. Perhaps more controversially, it creates huge opportunities for sales and marketing professionals.
The power of simple psychological principles like this is immense.
I try to meet with, virtually or in person, lots of my business and coaching contacts, and I find this an effective way of keeping up to date with the latest relevant issues. It also helps to ‘ground’ me and encourage me to check in with my own work and approach. Along the way I have lots of discussions about leadership which inevitably entails wildly differing views and opinions.
Out of the proliferation of remote work during and after COVID, a new challenge for organisations has emerged: many important skills are not easily, or cannot be, nurtured through screens. In the traditional office environment, the subtle yet powerful process of learning osmotically plays a critical role. Leaders model behaviours, and employees, often subconsciously, absorb crucial skills such as adaptability, emotional intelligence, and intuitive decision-making. Even resilience can be enhanced through witnessing other people’s coping mechanisms.
Reflecting on what I feel makes a leader truly great, I realise that leadership is generally misunderstood. It should not be about rank or authority;